1.(1次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: xueleng12): 据说考的是大学医院比社区或私人的差。请问是题库的哪一篇啊?
原题：
The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper:
“There is a common misconception that university hospitals are better than community or private hospitals. This notion is unfounded, however: the university hospitals in our region employ 15 percent fewer doctors, have a 20 percent lower success rate in treating patients, make far less overall profit, and pay their medical staff considerably less than do private hospitals. Furthermore, many doctors at university hospitals typically divide their time among teaching, conducting research, and treating patients. From this it seems clear that the quality of care at university hospitals is lower than that at other kinds of hospitals.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
报纸的健康板块上的文章：
有一种普遍的错误观念认为大学医院比社区或私人医院更好。这个想法是无根据的，我们地区的大学医院较之私人医院，少雇15%的医生，对患者的治愈率要低20%，总体利润要小得多，给一户员工的待遇比私人医院低很多。而且，很多大学医院的医生将他们的时间分为教学，直到研究和看病几部分。从此可明显看出大学医院的服务质量比其他医院低。
参考思路：
1.Insufficient sample：这里将的是“我们地区”，不具有代表性
2.False causal relationship：因为学校医生要上课，做研究，照顾病人，同时工资少，所以说care lower，无因果关系
3.Gratuitous assumption：假设雇佣医生少，付工资就会少没有依据
4.从一个医院的情况就推广到整个太草率
5. 治愈率低可能是因为接受的患者得的病都比较罕见等原因造成的
6. 工资低，总体利润低，时间分配给教学都不能一定说明质量差。可能其他福利好，接受的病人少，教学研究有助于进步
参考范文：
In this argument the author concludes that university hospitals provide no better care than private or community hospitals. The author bases this conclusion on the following claims about university hospitals: the ones in this region employ 15 percent fewer doctors; they have a 20 percent lower success rate in treating patients; they pay their staffs less money; they make less profit than community hospitals; and they utilize doctors who divide their time between teaching, research and treating patients. This argument is unconvincing for several reasons.
The most egregious reasoning error in the argument is the author’s use of evidence pertaining to university hospitals in this region as the basis for a generalization about all university hospitals. The underlying assumption operative in this inference is that university hospitals in this region are representative of all university hospitals. No evidence is offered to support this gratuitous assumption.
Secondly, the only relevant reason offered in support of the claim that the quality of care is lower in university hospitals than it is at other hospitals is the fact that university hospitals have a lower success rate in treating patients. But this reason is not sufficient to reach the conclusion in question unless it can be shown that the patients treated in both types of hospitals suffered from similar types of maladies. For example, if university hospitals routinely treat patients suffering from rare diseases whereas other hospitals treat only those who suffer from known diseases and illnesses, the difference in success rates would not be indicative of the quality of care received.
Finally, the author assumes that the number of doctors a hospital employs, its success rate in treating patients, the amount it pays its staff, and the profits it earns are all reliable indicators of the quality of care it delivers. No evidence is offered to support this assumption nor is it obvious that any of these factors is linked to the quality of care delivered to patients. Moreover, the fact that doctors in university hospitals divide their time among many tasks fails to demonstrate that they do a poorer job of treating patients than doctors at other kinds of hospitals. In fact, it is highly likely that they do a better job because they are more knowledgeable than other doctors due to their teaching and research.
In conclusion, the author’s argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the argument the author would have to demonstrate that university hospitals in this region are representative of all university hospitals, as well as establishing a causal link between the various factors cited and the quality of care delivered to patients.
2.(1次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: lxlsx): 汽车公司有两条生产线，一条生产线是手工生产奢侈品(luxurious)汽车，效率低;另一条普通生产线生产普通的汽车，效率高。现为了提高公司的profit，要cease奢侈品汽车的生产线因为其手工生产的汽车效率太低。
参考思路：
1. 生产数量少不代表利润少，薄利多销的利润不一定比高价少销的利润多
2. 考虑品牌效应，一个品牌拥有其自己的奢侈品，或是质量极高的产品可以彰显地位，提高品牌知名度。比如奔驰车刚出来的时候，其他车在打价格战，惟独奔驰价格高，质量好，成为上层社会的人们为彰显身份的座驾。
3. 不能保证都换成standard line以后生产的摩托车数量会“激增”
4. 考虑供过于求的情况
5.没有那么多机械设备来生产加产的standard motorcycle
3.(1次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: burmester): 音像店和衣服店那题，服装店要采纳音像店的广告宣传方法
原题：
The following appeared in a memorandum from the owner of Carlo’s Clothing to the staff:
“Since Disc Depot, the music store on the next block, began a new radio advertising campaign last year, its business has grown dramatically, as evidenced by the large increase in foot traffic into the store. While the Disc Depot’s owners have apparently become wealthy enough to retire, profits at Carlo’s Clothing have remained stagnant for the past three years. In order to boost our sales and profits, we should therefore switch from newspaper advertising to frequent radio advertisements like those for Disc Depot.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
Carlo's服饰老板给员工的备忘录：
由于Disc Depot，相邻街区的音像店从去年开始新的电台广告，它的业务显著增长，从商店人流量的大量增加就可以看出。当Disc Depot的老板显然已经足够富有可以退休时，Carlo's服饰的利润3年来一直停滞不变。为了促进我们的销售和利润，我们应该像DiscDepot一样从报纸广告转向经常的电台广告.
参考思路：
1.All thing are equal：remain unchanged 过去三年利润不变不代表未来不会增加
2.False analogy：DD与C的服饰店无可比性，所以不能说广告就适用C的服饰店
3. Gratuitous assumption：不能根据人流量大就假设销售量增加
4.False causal relationship：没有说电台广告与业务量增长有必然因果关系
5.Either or choice:可以宣传的不是只有电台广告
参考范文：感谢iuxuan8821~
In this argument, the author reaches the conclusion that Carlo’s Clothing should switch to frequent radio advertisements from newspaper advertising just like what Disc Depot did. Reasons are offered in support of this recommendation. First, the large increase in foot traffic into Disc Depot shows its dramatically increasing profits. Second, the dramatically increasing profits of Disc Depot are due to the new radio advertising campaign. In addition, frequent radio advertisements can boost the sales and profits of Carlo’s Clothing. At first glance, the argument appears to be somewhat convincing, but further inspection reveals that it contains several critical logic flaws and the line of reasoning is invalid.
To justify what he claims, the author first assumes that the large increase in foot traffic into the music store proves its dramatically growing business. But this is false assumption unless other possible explanations have been considered and ruled out. For example, perhaps the large crowd simply came to listen to the music but did not tend to buy any CDs in the store.
Secondly, in order to strengthen the argument, the author points out that the dramatically growing business of Disc Depot was due to their new radio advertising campaign. However, there are several reasons why this might not be true. In fact, the growing business of Disc Depot can be result from many reasons other than the new radio advertising. For example, the music store introduced new management style or applied better sales method.
Finally, even though supposing the new radio advertising campaign is responsible for the dramatically growing business of Disc Depot, the same strategy may not work well on Disc Depot. Because the argument rests on the assumption that Clothing store is similar to music store is so weak that the success of one kind of store may not ensure the success in other kinds of stores. If it does not suit other stores, the campaign will not work.
In conclusion, this argument is not compelling as it stands. Accordingly, it fails to prove the conclusion that Carlo’s Clothing should switch to frequent radio advertisements from newspaper advertising since it does not address the assumptions I have already raised. To make this claim more reliable, the author would have to provide evidence that the dramatically growing business of Disc Depot was direct result from their new radio advertising campaign which is also applicable to the clothing shop. Further, only with more concrete evidence could this argument become more thorough and better evaluated.
4.(1次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: cherrycy3): 就是说一家coffee cafe 认为他们的顾客对current products & customer service 很满意。他给出的理由是：1 feedback page 很容易被顾客找到，顾客要是想发牢骚绝对是可以看到这个功能的。2.他说迄今为止，在3000多家连锁咖啡厅中只有178complaints 和 38条 suggestions 。言下之意就是量很少，可以忽略之。
原题：
没找到
考古：
V1 有一个咖啡店的CEO根据过去6个月他们从feedback网页上得来的信息，认为客户对店卖的东西和服务都很满意，不需要作什么改进了。这个feedback登录方式印在了receipt上，CEO认为顾客都能看到。顾客通过网页提交的投诉和建议数量分别是100多和几十，相较于卖掉的咖啡数很小。
V2六个月了，the hot cup cafe has a website, containing a customer feedback page, 然后customers可以submit comments. The website address is clearly printed on the each receipt, so it is not difficult for customer to access the feedback page. 然后呢，那六个月the hot cup cafe卖了300,000cups of coffees，但是customer feedback page最有179个complaints和87个suggestions(大概数字是这样的既不清楚了)。然后就说almost all the customers are satisfied with our current products and customer service department, so we don't have make any improvement。
V3个咖啡店在他们的网站上加了一个customer feedback page，用来做调查，并且在他们的宣传单上明确的写明了他们的网址以便客户能找到这个feedback page，在这个咖啡店卖出了300，000份咖啡中调查，发现有500+人正评价，100+给了建议。因此他们认为根本不需要这些feedback以提高他们产品的质量(原文说的是to develop the procedure)
V4说一个咖啡馆在网站上建了一个feedback的专页，并将网址打印在给每位顾客的Receipt上面。发现一段时间后只有一百多条抱怨和几十条建议，而在此期间咖啡馆却售出了30000杯饮料，于是作者认为咖啡馆的服务和产品非常好。
A Cafe builds a website to allow the feedback of its customer in the past six months. The address of the site is clearly sited on the ** (忘了，单词大家能认识), The site only receives 178 complaints and 33 advise, but the number of total receipts is 33,000.Conclusion: the Cafe does not need to evaluate and improve the service.
V5一个customer service department manager的report:
从六个月前开始，有一个Cafe在每一个receipt上面都印了一个website address，是一个customer feedback page。所以每一个顾客都不难找到。到现在为止，该公司只收到一百多条complaints和不到一百条suggestions，而从有feedback page到现在该公司一共卖了三万杯coffee drink(总之是很大的一个数)。因此可以assume that顾客对这个公司的产品和服务fully satisfied，不需要改进提升之类。
参考思路：
1.有的很多人对咖啡店不满都不会反映的，他们只会默默地不来了，所以这些人不满意也不会说
2.就算有的人不满意了想说，看到了那个网站，也不一定会bother去上网去做feedback
3.所以一旦有人有建议和complaints说明情况还蛮严重的，应该采取措施去改进
5.(1次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: 球球葵): 有一个连锁零售商grocery store正经历高额销售数量但利润却在下降。它的顾客都是些有钱人，喜欢美食和奢侈品购物的体验，因此这家店必须在不影响顾客消费体验的前提下减少成本。所以这家店决定在每个分店裁员10人，取消昂贵的展示品和免费的样品。另外，它还要和一个咖啡店合作，在每家分店里开设咖啡店，因为有survey显示咖啡店的顾客和grocery store的是同一类人。这样会增加去store的顾客，从而增加销售额。这个计划最终会增加sales和profits。
原题：没找到
考古：
a local chain Greentree Grocers has been experiencing high sales volume but decreasing profit margin. Its customers are wealthy people looking for gourmet food and luxury shopping experience, so it must cut costs without hurting the customers' shopping experience. So it plans to lay off 10 employees per store and eliminate expensive displays and free samples. In addition, it will partner with Cabaree Coffee Cafe to have a coffee shop in each store. This is supported by a recent survey that the Grocers and the Cafe attract similar types of customers. The conclusion is that Greentree Grocers will experience high sales volume as well as high profit margin.
有一个连锁零售商grocery store正经历高额销售数量但利润却在下降。它的顾客都是些有钱人，喜欢美食和奢侈品购物的体验，因此这家店必须在不影响顾客消费体验的前提下减少成本。所以这家店决定在每个分店裁员10人，取消昂贵的展示品和免费的样品。另外，它还要和一个咖啡店合作，在每家分店里开设咖啡店，因为有survey显示咖啡店的顾客和grocery store的是同一类人。这样会增加去store的顾客，从而增加销售额。这个计划最终会增加sales和profits
参考思路：
1. Survey is doubtful : 报告不具体，不能直接用于GC
2. False causal relationship：去store的顾客增加和销售额增加没有直接关系，与profit和sales更是八杆子打不着吧
3. Gratuitous assumption：GC假设裁员，取消昂贵的展示品和免费的样品降低成本并不会影响顾客消费体验，但是这些可能就是顾客看重的。
4. 影响利润的因素有很多，可能是成本提高了，也可能是顾客的要求变高了。所以因为利润下降就裁员什么什么的是不合理的，也不能使得利润上升。Moreover，裁员和撤销免费样品和昂贵展示品会带来一些负面影响，比如可能会使服务的quality decrease，也会影响顾客的情绪。这些在高级商店Exclusive store里特别重要，会导致顾客不满，抱怨，于是反而会影响利润。
5. 认为在每家店里开个咖啡厅就能提高利润的想法不合理，没有更多的证据可以证明will increase the profit directly。而且咖啡店会需要增加人员，装修decorate，反而会增加成本。也不能确定开了咖啡店后就能所赚的就能弥补这些。
6. Survey is too vague to be informative。The claim does not indicate who conducted the poll，who responded，or when，where and how the poll was conducted。Without specific information about the survey showing its statistical reliability，the results of the survey are worthless as evidence for the conclusion。所以并不能确定咖啡店的顾客就会在店里消费，也并不能确定咖啡店的顾客就是喜欢消费奢侈品和美食的顾客。
6.(1次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: SWens): 关于一场国际soccer competition带来B国旅游者人数增长的短文
考古：
V1. The country of Bonaria held a major soccer event five years ago. Therefore, if the country continues to hold major sport events, tourism will increase rapidly in the country and thus bring benefits to the country's economy.
V2. 一个B城市: 5年前hold a soccer competition. 发现相比在这个competition 3年前，在这个competition举办后的3年的number of tourists increased 25%。所有呢，这个B城市打算再举办一次类似的sport event 来吸引游客。这个城市B相信，这个sport event会增加游客人数，同时benefit the country economy.
V3. 一个岛国B 5年前开了一个足球比赛，最近三年内游客人数涨了25%。所以说为了促进更多的游客来，我们B应该举行更多的比赛。才能带了更多的游客数量和利润。
V4.大概是B地旅游发展局给出数据，几年前这里举办了大型soccer比赛，吸引了大量游客到访，同时刺激了当地经济发展。但后来经济又回落了，所以当局想继续举办大型的运动赛事来重新刺激经济发展
参考思路：
1. 错误的由时间先后推出因果关系
2. 过去的成功不能保证将来，存在他因
3.因果关系：不能因为一场球赛吸引了很多观众就要举办更多的比赛。首先举办比赛需要场地。足球比赛对场地的要求较低，但如果是举办体操，游泳等比赛，会花费大量的建厂成本，也许会超过收入。
4.论据以偏概全：不能因为一场球赛就说明所有的国际比赛都很吸引观众。也许是因为这场比赛的重要性和特殊性导致了其有很高的观众参与度，就像Olympic game一样。但是其他的国际比赛也许不能有这样的效果。
5.Either or 的选择：提高经济收入并不仅仅有通过举办比赛这样一种方式，还可以发展当地的旅游特色，挖掘作为一个island的特点，从而增加收入。
7.(1次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: AIWeak): 大致内容是造手机的C公司年报提议大量购买生产现有型号手机所需的贵金属，因为这几年贵金属的价格涨落很大，而且预期手机部门的生产规模会扩大
考古:
V1. with high quantity purchasing of expensive metal products, a cell phone company said that becasue the price is rise and fall dramatically and becasue the future cell phone market will grow and high volume of product demands, it should lock in saving by purchasing large quantity of matal at current price to keep continued profits
V2. 一个生产生产公司想提高利润.途径是降低成本.因为原材料设计贵重金属,金,银等.所以方法是大批量购入该原材料,以获得更低成本.
V3. 之前寂静里面有的，#10应该是，就是生产手机需要很多很贵但是很稀有的金属。然后在过去的10年中，这些金属的价格非常不稳定(dramatic rise and fall in the prices) 然后那个公司认为他们的预算还有市场对他们手机的需求非常可观，所以他们决定一次买很多那些稀有金属。因为他们认为这样做可以lock in saving for the company as well as guarantee a continued high profits in the furture.
V4. 生产手机需要大量的金属，比如金银之类的，在过去十年中厂商对这些原料的需求不断增加，并且因此影响到这些金属的价格大幅变动。由于预测说今后手机需求将继续不断增加并且对原材料的购买也将不断增加，因此可以考虑通过现在大量购买这些原材料作为lock in the cost来节约成本，从而争取更大的利润。
参考思路：
1. 贵重金属属于投资范畴,价格不恒定.无法确定什么时候买入是合适的时机.所以很有可能造成不必要亏损.
2. 贵重金属存储与看护需要额外的劳动力和仓储资金.这增加了隐形成本.
3. 生产技术的变更的不确定性.有可能不久的未来电话不需要那些贵重金属了.
4. 资金的有效利用性.作为生产行业,最低成本和最大产能应该是两大重点.资金应该投入到最有效的方位去.大量购入原材料,囤积造成资金回流速度过慢.产生条件成本.若资金投入到产能开发,或许会回流更快,达到更好的效果.
5. 物品价格长线会自然协调.短期购入大量原材料看似省钱.但是长线来说,物品稀缺了,自然价格本比原先该涨的跟涨得厉害.宏观上讲,不可能省下什么钱的.
6. 不充分：提前购入不一定能保证利润不受损，因为价格波动可能上浮或下降
7. 该贵金属是否在决定手机成本中起重要作用?可能影响甚微
8. 不是唯一的解决办法。也就是说keep savings and get continued-high profits的途径有很多，不止文章中提到的那一个，author很多的factor没考虑到
9. 这种预测不可靠。forcast也是就是几个大学生做出来的，他们的数据来源不可靠或者已经outdated了。
10. 过去几年涨价不代表未来会涨价，如果跌价会给工厂造成损失。
8.(1次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: colejon ): the director of franchising at MegaBurger写了一份信给the owner of Cindy's Sandwich Shop, 想要拉拢他们入伙，cindy's sandwich shop是一个med-sized restaurant in Billville已经开了2家分店. 说了一堆franchising的好处：lowering operating costs, share advertising costs with other franchised restaurants, more customers will come for a well-known restaurant. 狗主觉得这director的信写的很persuasive 但是不够motivative. 这个小镇的人口fixed了，顾客早认知了这个品牌，就算你是名牌，顶多你能下调点成本，但是如果店主无所谓更多的利润，就满足于2个分店，那加盟不加盟就无所谓了。
考古:
V1：AA：貌似是一个F食品店老板给一个sandwich店老板写了封信，建议s的老板改成F店，因为事实证明顾客更喜欢去离家近的地方消费以及在知道菜单的地方吃饭。。。并且F店的进货cost更低。。。
V2：AA是说，一个快餐franchise【楼主连这个单词是啥意思都不知道对不起啊不喜欢背单词啊。。。】连锁店A的头头写信给三明治店B的人写信，说希望B不要买三明治了，跟他们一起去开快餐店，来提高利润吸引顾客啥的。原因有两个，一是开快餐店可以提高operating efficiency， 因为cost of suppliers 比较低还有能 share advertisement expenses，二是现在人们都喜欢有名气的clothing shop， 所以应该也会喜欢restaurants they know what to expect in quality and what's avaible这种类似的东西这句话楼主又没看懂。。。对不起啊
V3：AA：是说一个汉堡公司写给CINDY三文治餐厅的一个东西，内容大概是：加入大公司(还是跨国连锁神马的)都会带来很多好处。如果三文治公司加入汉堡公司的连锁，可以降低OPERATING COST和吸引更多顾客。而且就好像人们更愿意去那些nationally known clothing and home-supply shop，人们也更愿意去知道菜单会有什么菜的餐厅去吃饭。所以三文治公司应该立刻加入汉堡公司的大家庭。
这个还算是好些。
V4：Franchise restaurant 的directer 信 Cindy's Sandwich邀加入他的 MegaBurger national chain。列出1. 大型可以少 2.某些客人喜到大型店消
参考思路：
1)gratuitous assumption，不一定加入连锁店就能吸引更多的顾客，可能顾客喜欢三明治店原本的风格，加入连锁店之后反而流失客户;
(2) one sidedness, 即使有可能有吸引新客户和降低采购成本等优势，同样也有潜在的劣势，比如training员工和重新装修店面的成本上升，老板也可能会失去管理权;
(3) false analogy，服装店和餐厅不可比，服装店的客户可能喜欢stable的quality，但餐厅的顾客喜欢推陈出新的产品，熟悉的menu可能更让客户厌烦
9.(1次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: tangjiuxuan) 说公司X向员工做了调查，询问公司最需要改进的是什么方面(按最需要改进到最不需要改进排列)。调查结果是“与管理层之间的共同问题”得分最高。于是公司的高级管理人员推出了一系列sessions，员工自愿参加。管理层认为，通过这些session的实行，公司最需要解决的问题已经得到了改进。
原题:
The following appeared in a memorandum from the director of human resources to the executive officers of Company X:
“Last year, we surveyed our employees on improvements needed at Company X by having them rank, in order of importance, the issues presented in a list of possible improvements. Improved communications between employees and management was consistently ranked as the issue of highest importance by the employees who responded to the survey. As you know, we have since instituted regular communications sessions conducted by high-level management, which the employees can attend on a voluntary basis. Therefore, it is likely that most employees at Company X now feel that the improvement most needed at the company has been made.”
人力资源经理给X公司的经营主管的备忘录：
去年，我们向员工调查他们认为X公司应该进行的改进，让他们把改进按重要性排列。结果列印为一张可能的改进的表格。根据调查中员工的反应，“加强员工和管理层的沟通”最具重要性，稳居调查表之首。如你所知，那以后我们建立了由高层管理人员组织，雇员可以自愿参加的常规交流会。因此，看来X的多数员工认为最应该进行的改进已经完成了。
参考思路：
1.The result of a last year's survey does not necessarily represent the improvement most needed of this year.
2.How was the survey held has not been illustrated by the author, thus making the conclusion groundless.
3.Whether the implement of the mentioned resolution is right or wrong is still unkonwn, it is still too early to say the improvement has been made.
4.调查的可信性：是否anonymous，如果要named，很可能并不是他们最想要的改进。
5.改进方法是否充分?是否交流会有很好交流，并且采纳accept意见
参考范文：
The Director of Human Resources concludes that most employees at Company X feel that the improvement most needed at the company has been satisfactorily addressed. Two reasons are offered in support of this conclusion. First, a survey of employees showed that the issue respondents were most concerned about was employee-management communication. Second, the company has since instituted regular voluntary sessions for employees and management designed to improve communication. The director’s argument is questionable for two reasons.
To begin with, the validity of the survey is doubtful. Lacking information about the number of employees surveyed and the number of respondents, it is impossible to assess the validity of the results. For example, if 200 employees were surveyed but only two responded, the conclusion that most of the employees ranked employee-management communication as the most pressing issue would be highly suspect. Because the argument offers no evidence that would rule out interpretations such as this, the survey results are insufficient to support the author’s conclusion.
Furthermore, even if the survey accurately ranks certain issues according to level of employee concern, the highest-ranked issue in the survey might not be the issue about which employees are most concerned. Why? The improvement most needed from the point of view of the employees might not have appeared as one of the choices on the survey. For example, if the list of improvements presented on the survey was created by management rather than by the employees, then the issues of greatest concern to the employees might not be included on the list. Lacking information about how the survey was prepared, it is impossible to assess its reliability. Consequently, any conclusion based on it is highly questionable.
In conclusion, the director’s conclusion is not well-founded. To strengthen the argument, additional information regarding the way in which the employee survey was prepared and conducted is required.
10.(1次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: Crissie) the processing of color film 使得 color film 的价格降低了。。。正逢 Olympic Food 的15还是25周年的celebration, 要把 the processing of the color film 运用到 the processing of the food 然后可以minimize costs and thus maximize profit
原题:
The following appeared as part of an annual report sent to stockholders by Olympic Foods, a processor of frozen foods:
“Over time, the costs of processing go down because as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient. In color film processing, for example, the cost of a 3-by-5-inch print fell from 50 cents for five-day service in 1970 to 20 cents for one-day service in 1984. The same principle applies to the processing of food. And since Olympic Foods will soon celebrate its 25th birthday, we can expect that our long experience will enable us to minimize costs and thus maximize profits.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
参考思路：
1. False analogy：冲印胶片与生产食物类比错误
2. Gratuitous assumption:错误假设长久经验可以降低成本，增加利润
3. False causal relationship：成本与利润并没有直接联系，还要看售价等因素影响
1. 错误类比：color film和processor of frozen foods不同。不能因此推出发生在film身上的情况同样发生在冷冻食品公司。这样推论不合理。
2. 忽略了其他因素。成本下降还有其他可能性。比如生产结构发生了改变，管理者改革等等都有可能。不排除这些可能就不能直接direct推断成本下降是因为经验多
3. 说经验多就到很多没有根据。也许什么都没学到。有很多老牌的公司最后还是bankrupt就是因为这样。
参考范文：
Citing facts drawn from the color-film processing industry that indicate a downward trend in the costs of film processing over a 24-year period, the author argues that Olympic Foods will likewise be able to minimize costs and thus maximize profits in the future. In support of this conclusion the author cites the general principle that “as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient.” This principle, coupled with the fact that Olympic Foods has had 25 years of experience in the food processing industry leads to the author's rosy prediction. This argument is unconvincing because it suffers from two critical flaws.
First, the author's forecast of minimal costs and maximum profits rests on the gratuitous assumption that Olympic Foods' “long experience” has taught it how to do things better. There is, however, no guarantee that this is the case. Nor does the author cite any evidence to support this assumption. Just as likely, Olympic Foods has learned nothing from its 25 years in the food-processing business. Lacking this assumption, the expectation of increased efficiency is entirely unfounded.
Second, it is highly doubtful that the facts drawn from the color-film processing industry are applicable to the food processing industry. Differences between the two industries clearly outweigh the similarities, thus making the analogy highly less than valid. For example, problems of spoilage, contamination, and timely transportation all affect the food industry but are virtually absent in the film-processing industry. Problems such as these might present insurmountable obstacles that prevent lowering food-processing costs in the future.
As it stands the author's argument is not compelling. To strengthen the conclusion that Olympic Foods will enjoy minimal costs and maximum profits in the future, the author would have to provide evidence that the company has learned how to do things better as a result of its 25 years of experience. Supporting examples drawn from industries more similar to the food-processing industry would further substantiate the author's view.
11.(1次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: lakes ) 关于一个department store是否要减少clothing department，扩大house hould department的问题，不是很难。
原题:
The following appeared as part of a recommendation from the business manager of a department store:
“Local clothing stores reported that their profits decreased, on average, for the three-month period between August 1 and October 31. Stores that sell products for the home reported that, on average, their profits increased during this same period. Clearly, consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing. To take advantage of this trend, we should reduce the size of our clothing departments and enlarge our home furnishings and household products departments.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
专卖店的商务经理的备忘录：
本地服装店报告说从8月1号到10月31号的3个月里他们的平均利润下降。销售家庭用品的商店却报告同期的平均利润上升。很明显，顾客正选择为他们的家里购买用品而不是买衣物。为了利用这个趋势，我们应该缩减我们的服装部规模而扩大家庭装饰和家务用品部
参考思路：
1. False causal relationship:不能有家庭用品销售量上升就说顾客在选择.....
2. Either or choice:服装销售下降，家用销售增加就说....，太绝对，也有可能其他的都增加，就衣服销售减少了
3. All thing are equal：过去三个月的销量不能代表未来
4. Gratuitous assumption：因为这三个月的销售量就假设这个趋势，不对。假设缩减我们的服装部规模而扩大家庭装饰和家务用品部可以形成优势也不对。
参考范文：
Based upon sales reports over a three-month period that indicate an increase in profits for stores that sell products for the home and a decrease in profits for clothing stores, the business manager of a department store concludes that consumers are choosing to purchase home furnishings rather than clothing. On the basis of this conclusion, the manager recommends a reduction in the size of the clothing department and an increase in the size of the home-furnishings department. This recommendation is problematic in two critical respects.
In the first place, the author's conclusion that consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing is based upon too small a sample. Data gathered from a three-month period is insufficient to establish the conclusion drawn from it. It is quite possible that the three-month period chosen is idiosyncratic and not representative of entire year's sales. If so, reducing the size of the clothing departments and enlarging the home-furnishings departments may be a costly mistake.
In the second place, the data collected during the three month period may be biased. The fact that the data reflects sales in local stores is cause for concern. It is possible that the sales trend in a particular location is not representative of sales in other regions. For example, sales of clothing in Florida during the winter months are likely to be quite different from sales of clothing in Alaska during the same period.
In conclusion, this argument is not persuasive as it stands. A more convincing argument must provide additional sales data, collected at different periods of the year and at different locations, that substantiates the trend in question.
12.(1次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: sallymaurice ) campus housing rate drease. 为了增加，某个newspaper人说减少供应量，增加occupancy rate. 然后降低rents，keep students from live-off campus ,提高需求量.
原题:
The following appeared in the editorial section of a campus newspaper:
“Because occupancy rates for campus housing fell during the last academic year, so did housing revenues. To solve the problem, campus housing officials should reduce the number of available housing units, thereby increasing the occupancy rates. Also, to keep students from choosing to live off-campus, housing officials should lower the rents, thereby increasing demand.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
校园报纸的社论：
因为校园住宅的使用率在过去的学年中下降了，住宅收入也下降了。为了解决这个问题，校园住宅办公室应该减少可使用的住宅单元，从而增加使用率。同样的，为了不让学生选择住在校外，住宅办公室应该降低租金来扩大需求。
参考思路：
1.入住率和房租收入非因果关系(房租收入下降也可能是赶上经济衰退租房市场低迷、学生招收人数减少等)
2.降低房租不一定能吸引更多的学生(价格不是唯一因素，存在其他因素如住宿条件、学校管制太严等)
3.提高入住率不一定能提高收入(尤其是在利用降低房租这个手段时，增加的入住量不一定能弥补降低房租带来的损失)
4.False causal relationship
5.Gratuitous assumption：
6.All things are equal:
参考范文：
The author of this article argues that, to reverse declining revenues from campus housing rentals, campus housing officials should decrease the number of available housing units and reduce rent prices on the units. The author’s line of reasoning is that fewer available units will limit supply while lower rents will increase demand, thereby improving overall occupancy rates, and that the resulting increase in occupancy rates will, in turn, boost revenues for the campus. This reasoning is unconvincing for several reasons.
To begin with, the author assumes that boosting occupancy rates will improve revenues. All other factors remaining unchanged, this would be the case. However, the author proposes reducing both the supply of units and their rental prices. Both of these actions would tend to reduce revenues. The author provides no evidence that the revenue-enhancing effect of a higher occupancy rate will exceed the revenue-decreasing effect of reduced supply and price. Without such evidence, the argument is unconvincing.
Secondly, the author assumes that lowering rents will lead to higher revenues by increasing demand. However, it is possible that demand would decrease, depending on the extent of the rent reduction as well as other factors—such as overall enrollment and the supply and relative cost of off-campus housing. Moreover, even if demand increases by lowering rents, revenues will not necessarily increase as a result. Other factors, such as maintenance and other costs of providing campus housing units and the reduced supply of rental units might contribute to a net decrease in revenue.
Thirdly, in asserting that lowering rental rates will increase demand, the author assumes that current rental rates are causing low demand. However, low demand for student housing could be a function of other factors. For instance, the student housing units may be old and poorly maintained. Perhaps students find the campus housing rules oppressive, and therefore prefer to live off-campus; or perhaps enrollments are down generally, affecting campus housing occupancy.
In conclusion, the author of this editorial has not argued effectively for a decrease in the number of available campus housing units and a reduction in rental rates for those units. To strengthen the argument, the author must show that a rent reduction will actually increase demand, and that the revenue-enhancing effect of greater demand will outweigh the revenue-reducing effect of a smaller supply and of lower rental rates.
13.(2次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: Bachhukali ) 一个报纸提出的选择职业的建议，说是it is unwise去选择self-employd (work at home) than a stable office work. 然后陈述了理由。首先是self-employed会让人经常被distracted, 比如neighbor, baby什么的，然后说work at home会让人有惰性(一个蛮长的词，不认识= =)并且会avoid working，最后说work at home让人没有社交，阻碍了career发展。
考古:
V1. 考的是对于那些在家工作的人的陈述。说他们容易受到外界的影响，在没有计划的情况下容易懈怠不工作，因为一直在家里还很难得到职业发展和晋升的机会等等。。。
V2. 题目中有单词没读懂，不过不影响整体意思，主要就是在批评在家工作的坏处，先说在家工作会遇到很多让你分心的事，比如手机响，吵闹的邻居还有个什么忘了，然后又说在家工作会让你没有一个schedule并且avoid working，最后说在家工作让人们socially and professionally isolated 以至于不能升职神马的
V3. 说homeworker的坏处，第一点是什么家庭周围的吵杂声会影响到工作，第二点：人们可能会本能的Avoiding working，第三点：随着Socially and economically isolated ，homeworker will be limitted.
V4. 是那个homeworker挣得比office worker 少 给了三条理由 第一是会受到很多因素影响工作 如电话 noisy neighbors 第二是人们本身会aviod working 第三是isolated 机会limited
Generally speaking, it is financially unwise for people quit stable office job and start working from home. It is there are a lot of distractions when people working from home. People working from home tend to procrastinate because there is no discipline. Also, working from home make people isolated. Therefore, it is financially more advantageous for people working in the office.It is unwise to quit a stable office job in order to be self-employed and work at home. 给出的理由是，在家办公容易受neighbor影响，没效率，经常avoid working等等。然后又说在家办公isolated with the work place, 对career advancement不好。所以不应该quit stable office job and become self-employed.
说在办公室工作比在家工作好。有三个论点
1 在家工作的人会面对更多的abstraction，比如 邻居 电话 家务等等。 2在家工作的人更没有时间计划，更倾向与avoid work 3与社会和人群隔离，会对人的career advance有限制。整个argument都没有举例和调查。
参考思路：
1 false causal relationship: no correlation
2 gratuitous assumption no evidence
3 Either or choice
14.(1次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: jiafeimao673 ) 因为across town的district的三个new business(pizza 店、golf club还有一个忘了)做得很成功，于是某investment firm决定也在他们那个district建立相同的三种new business，并且给Patronize其中两个business的客人第三个business的优惠，这样就可以提高sales也可以提高profitability 了。
原题:
The following appeared as part of the business plan of the Capital Idea investment firm.
“Across town in the Park Hill district, the Thespian Theater, Pizzazz Pizza, and the Niblick Golf Club have all had business increases within the past two years. Capital Idea should therefore invest in the Roxy Playhouse, the Slice-o’-Pizza, and the Divot Golf Club, three new businesses in the Irongate district. As a condition, we should require them to participate in a special program: Any customer who patronizes two of the businesses will receive a substantial discount at the third. By motivating customers to patronize all three, we will thus contribute to the profitability of each and maximize our return.”
在ParkHill区的Thespian剧院，Pizzazz比萨，Niblick高尔夫俱乐部在过去2年都有业务增长。因此Capital Idea应该投资Poxy剧场，Slic-o比萨和Divot高尔夫俱乐部这3家新的Irongate区的企业。为使他们达到条件，我们应该要求他们参加特殊的项目：任何顾客在其中两家消费将在第三家得到折扣。通过刺激顾客在所有3家店消费，我们将增进每一家的利润，从而使我们的回报最大化。