28.(3次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: bit00000 ) S国家准备降低国家的贸易赤字by降低糖的价格，糖是这个国家的主要出口产品。这样的策略会让他们在全球市场上更有竞争里。降价能使销量(还是利润?)增加，并且这样的增加能降低贸易赤字(通过利润增加?)。 求考苦 后面有点记不清 但是整个逻辑很简单。。
原题：
The following appeared as part of an article in a weekly newsmagazine：
“The country of Sacchar can best solve its current trade deficit problem by lowering the price of sugar, its primary export. Such an action would make Sacchar better able to compete for markets with other sugar-exporting countries. The sale of Sacchar's sugar abroad would increase, and this increase would substantially reduce Sacchar's trade deficit.”
一份周刊上的文章：
Sacchar国解决其赤字的最好方法是降低其主要出口物糖的价格。这一举动将使Sacchar与其他糖出口国更好的竞争。Sacchar出口的糖将会增加，这一增长将实在地降低Sacchar的贸易赤字。
参考思路：
1、比起价格下降而带来的损失产量提高的影响是不是更大不是定数Increasing sales by lowering the price of sugar will not yeild an increase in income unless the increase in sales is sufficient to overcome the loss in income due to the lower price. in the absence of ...
2、可能性价比本来就很有竞争力了不需要降价，也可能价格已经很低了没有降低的空间了
3、降低进口可能是一个更好的办法A trade-deficit occurs when a country spends more on imports than it earns from exports. However, the author provides no evidence that substantiates this assumption. It is possible that revenues from imports will increase dramatically in the near future; if so, the course of action proposed by the author might be unnecessary to solve Sacchar's trade deficit proplem. To the extent that this is the case...
参考范文：
(一)
The author of this article argues that the country of Sacchar can best solve its current trade deficit problem by lowering the price of its main export, sugar. The line of reasoning is that this action would make Sacchar more competitive with other sugar-exporting countries, thereby increasing sales of Sacchar's sugar abroad and, in turn, substantially reducing the trade-deficit. This line of reasoning is unconvincing for a couple of reasons.
In the first place, this argument is based on an oversimplified analysis of the trade deficit problem Sacchar currently faces. A trade-deficit occurs when a country spends more on imports than it earns from exports. The author's argument relies on the assumption that earnings from imports will remain constant. However, the author provides no evidence that substantiates this assumption. It is possible that revenues from imports will increase dramatically in the near future; if so, the course of action proposed by the author might be unnecessary to solve Sacchar's trade deficit problem. Conversely, it is possible that revenues from imports are likely to decrease dramatically in the near future. To the extent that this is the case, lowering sugar prices may have a negligible countervailing effect, depending on the demand for Sacchar's sugar.
In the second place, increasing sales by lowering the price of sugar will not yield an increase in income unless the increase in sales is sufficient to overcome the loss in income due to the lower price. This raises three questions the author fails to address. First, will a price decrease in fact stimulate demand? Second, is demand sufficient to meet the increase in supply? Third, can Sacchar increase the sugar production sufficiently to overcome the deficit? In the absence of answers to these questions, we cannot assess the author's proposal.
In conclusion, the author provides an incomplete analysis of the problem and, as a result, provides a questionable solution. To better evaluate the proposal, we would need to know how revenues from imports are likely to change in the future. To strengthen the argument, the author must provide evidence that demand is sufficient to meet the proposed increase in supply, and that Sacchar has sufficient resources to accommodate the increase.
(二)非常感谢giggs11~!
The author argues that lowering the price of sugar, the primary export of Sacchar, can help to substantially reduce Sacchar's trade deficit, because the lowering price can make Sacchar better able to compete with other sugar-exporting countries and thus the sale of sugar abroad will increase, which can help to reduce the trade deficit of the country. The claim seems appealing at a first glance, but after reflection we will find several flaws during the argument.
In the first place, the author assumes that the overall output of the sugar can be easily increased to meet the increasing demand due to the low price. However, no evidence in the argument supports that assumption. It is possible that the overall output of the sugar in Sacchar has already reached the maximum to achieve the maximum profit and it cannot be increased and more. Therefore the conclusion is weakened in this case because of the lower price and same output.
In the second place, the author assumes that the price of sugar can be lowered, which cannot be inferred from the argument as well. It is possible that there is little profit for the manufacture to produce sugar and if the price is cut any more there will be no profit to produce sugar in Sacchar. In this case, the conclusion is weakened as the lower price of sugar will cause no manufactures in Sacchar to produce sugar.
Furthermore, there is no essential link between the export and the trade deficit. The reduction of trade deficit can be achieved by decreasing import, which may be a easier solution to reduce Sacchar's trade deficit.
In conclusion, lowering price of the sugar in Sacchar will not necessarily lead to a reduction of Sacchar's trade deficit. To strengthen the argument, the author needs to verify that there is no other solutions to reduce trade deficit in Saccharand that both lowering price of sugar and increasing output of sugar can be easily achieved.
29.(1次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: rachel_lli ) 一个股票分析师的文章，说Crower's Head Clothes company主营年轻人的衣物等时尚用品，过去5年在outlet里面卖的非常好。现在公司要在全国各地的shopping mall里开125家自己的专卖店。分析师强烈建议顾客买入这个公司的股票。另外这个公司的管理层非常好，关键是他的CEO是一个从前很有名的rock star，他的专辑以前还上过排行榜(或者非常畅销之类的意思)。这个CEO能让这个公司更能被大家认可并且ensure its success as a young growth company.
考古：
V1一个新的服装企业 发展五年要开自己的retail store ，作者建议clients 购进这个企业的衣服，因为有很强的竞争力，而且CEO是原来很有名气的rock star (我总觉得是艾薇儿的那个clothes line)
V2.某集团的某产品在一些连里面销售不错。所以他们计划打算自己卖(在超市里面)。有一个投资经理忽悠客户叫他们赶紧买这家公司的股票。因为上面的原因。还有一个更搞笑的，该公司CEO是“前”摇滚明星。具有recognition知名度，能号召Young什么的购买力。
V3.讲的是一个young rising company 扩张了自己的业务，并且为了company的成功给出了两种预测——第一个是由于员工的极力推荐，可以使这个这个公司的发展获得成功。第二个是由于该company 的CEO是一个rock star，通过该CEO的star power也可以促使这个young rising company 获得成功
V4 说有间clothing is the new trend for youth apparel，然后financial analyst 建议investment firm to purchase this company based on the following。因为：1.the company has been profitable in past 5 years 2.management has been very aggressive in expansion. They plan to open 125 stores this year 3. CEO is a former rock star and the album has been the top sales. The star power will be Influential
参考思路：
1. 过去5年盈利不保证将来也会盈利，新的销售渠道的建立(改变销售渠道)可能会对销量产生负面影响
2. 证据不充分：有实力管理激进不能推断出股东能获利
3. 错误因果。前摇滚明星有知名度有粉丝，但管理好公司还需要专业的CEO
4. 前摇滚明星不能保证在未来的一代青年人中一直保持高知名度
5. 衣服卖得多了很可能是全国经济形势好了不一定跟他们公司产品质量好有关系。
6. 在别人的outline卖得好他们自己可能不会管理卖的不一定好。
7. 一个摇滚明星，还是过气的摇滚明星，要管理不一定会管理要人气没人气，这种人当CEO靠谱
30.(1次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: ynayumi ) 一个MARKETCO说，local people prefer local的grogery是因为这些grogery一直在这里，develop 一种消费loyalty。尽管MO的东西多选择也多，但是顾客还是选择原来的商店。所以为了改变这种局面，他们要把广告资金挪到当地community建设中如建设学校啊足球场啊，来让自己seen as a local。预计这样会使得收益增加。
考古：
V1. 就说有个叫MarketCo.的大型连锁超市，它的价格虽然比local grocery stores要低 但是还是有很大一部分生意被抢走了。所以它的assistant marketing director就说是因为那些顾客已经对local store有loyalty了 所以才会大量market share被抢走。所以他就提议说把一半的广告费用投到用来develop consumer loyalty的项目上来 比如建操场啊 之类之类的 这样呢，market share就可以win过来啦~~
V2. 就说有个叫MarketCo.的大型连锁超市，它做了个research,说结论是客户忠诚度在降低，因为人们都爱去locally的grocery stores。于是他们就觉得奇怪了，像他们这种大型连锁超市，价格又便宜，地段又好，怎么大家还爱去grocery stores。于是就建议，shift the half of the advertising budget into 公共事业项目上来，比如建操场啊，还什么博物馆啊，之类的给当地人提供福利的事情上来。这样子，它就能赢得市场份额，把顾客从grocery stores那里抢过来，从而增加盈利。
V3. 一个Marketco 超市发现小城市的人们喜欢去loca owned store买东西。为了证明，他们做了一个reasearch。最后，提出要在全国范围内增加在???(这里记不清了)的广告费用 ，还提出了一些竞争的手段什么的。。
V4. 全国连锁超市应该投入大量宣传费用，用于支援社区建设如社区公园、运动场等，来和小城市的local store争夺顾客，以此实现提高industry competitive。
参考思路：
1. False Casual relationship: 忽略了其他因素，比如交通;做广告也许效果比develop consumer loyalty项目的效果更好，建操场之类顾客不一定买账
2. All things are equal
3. Either or choice： 不是唯一的解决办法，可以采用促销兼捆绑销售的办法提高顾客忠诚度
4. Loyalty 和消费选择的关系===没有详细论据
5.去搞当地建设不一定可以seen as a local
6. 就算seen as a local也不一定提高消费
7.消费者的选择可能是因为其他因素如地点很近，服务态度