16.(1次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: Celimene)Muscle magazine,...state-of-art-machine...fitness...use this machine for town's residents keeping fitness...excercise center consider this to be useful, then decide to buy this machine.
原题:
The following appeared in the letters-to-the-editor section of a local newspaper.
“Muscle Monthly, a fitness magazine that regularly features pictures of bodybuilders using state-of-the-art exercise machines, frequently sells out, according to the owner of Skyview Newsstand. To help maximize fitness levels in our town’s residents, we should, therefore, equip our new community fitness center with such machines.”
参考思路：
1. 杂志和健身中心的marketing strategy不同，不能简单apply杂志的经验，况且人们买杂志可能不是因为器材而是因为上面的运动员
2. 作者将健身视为强身健体的唯一途径，但其实慢跑、游泳等都可以强身健体，而且更便宜
3. 这些健身器材的质量未经过检验，值得怀疑
4. 如果杂志卖光得快不一定是因为这个器材好，很可能是价钱便宜，和其他的内容。
5. 那些人很可能并不真正用这些机器，而只是摆出造型。
6. 如果是为了body-building的机器很可能不能fitness。比如，cardiovascular fitness。
参考范文：
In this argument the author concludes that the new community fitness center should be equipped with the state-of-the-art exercise machines featured in Muscle Monthly magazine. In support of this recommendation two reasons are offered: (1) Muscle Monthly contains pictures of bodybuilders using such machines, and (2) Muscle Monthly is a popular magazine, as evidenced by the fact that it frequently sells out at the local newsstand. This argument is questionable on two counts.
First, a major implication of the argument is that the bodybuilders pictured using the machines in Muscle Monthly magazine reached their state of fitness as a result of using these machines. The only evidence offered to support this contention, however, is the pictures in the magazine. It is possible that the bodybuilders pictured use different equipment for their workouts and are merely posing with the machines for advertising purposes.
Second, the author assumes that machines that are suitable for bodybuilding will also be suitable to help maximize the fitness levels of the town’s residents. This assumption is highly questionable. Machines designed to increase muscle development are significantly different from those designed to increase cardiovascular fitness. Consequently, it is unlikely that the machines pictured in the magazine will be of much use to help maximize the fitness levels of the town’s residents.
In conclusion, this argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the argument the author would have to show that the bodybuilders pictured using the exercise machines actually used the machines to reach their level of muscle development. Additionally, the author would have to show that the machines were suitable for increasing the fitness levels of the persons using them.
17.(1次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: jarod_elf) 有人建议新公司都去某个城市Helios投资，因为1这个城市失业率低于平均，哪怕是在最近经济萧条的时候。2这个城市在生产制造工业占的比例一直很大，3这个城市正打算加强对创新科技研发的吸引力。
原题:
The following appeared aspart of an article in a magazine devoted to regional life.“Corporations should look to the city of Helios when seeking new business opportunities or a new location. Even in the recent recession, Helios’s unemployment rate was lower than the regional average. It is the industrial center of the region, and historically it has provided more than its share of the region’s manufacturing jobs. In addition, Helios is attempting to expand its economic base by attracting companies that focus on research and development of innovative technologies.”
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
一份面向地方生活的杂志上的一篇文章 企业在寻找新的商机或位置时应该去Helios城。甚至在最近的衰退中，Helios的失业率也比地区平均水平低，它是地区的工业中心，历史上它提供的比它在地区制造业工作中分享的份额中更多。而且，Helios正试图通过吸引研究和发展革新技术的公司来扩张它的经济基础。
参考思路：
1.因为H地区industrial and manufacturing比较attractive，所以那里的工人很可能只适合做这类的，如果缺乏能够做innovative technologies and research的工人labor pool，那么很可能导致失败。
2.H的低失业率更可能成为坏处。因为比如有less available work force。企业必须提高wage才能吸引他们。提高了COST。
3.错误的假设过去的成功能够代表未来。比方说已经饱和的资源、过分的竞争、以及可能出现的错误政策，都可能导致H地区的经济不再发达。
参考范文：
In this argument corporations are urged to consider the city of Helios when seeking a new location or new business opportunities. To support this recommendation, the author points out that Helios is the industrial center of the region, providing most of the region’s manufacturing jobs and enjoying a lower-than-average unemployment rate. Moreover, it is argued, efforts are currently underway to expand the economic base of the city by attracting companies that focus on research and development of innovative technologies. This argument is problematic for two reasons.
To begin with, it is questionable whether the available labor pool in Helios could support all types of corporations. Given that Helios has attracted mainly industrial and manufacturing companies in the past, it is unlikely that the local pool of prospective employees would be suitable for corporations of other types. For example, the needs of research and development companies would not be met by a labor force trained in manufacturing skills. For this reason, it’s unlikely that Helios will be successful in its attempt to attract companies that focus or research and development of innovative technologies.
Another problem with the available work force is its size. Due to the lower than average unemployment rate in Helios, corporations that require large numbers of workers would not find Helios attractive. The fact that few persons are out of work suggests that new corporations will have to either attract new workers to Helios or pay the existing workers higher wages in order to lure them away from their current jobs. Neither of these alternatives seems enticing to companies seeking to relocate.
In conclusion, the author has not succeeded in providing compelling reasons for selecting Helios as the site for a company wishing to relocate. In fact, the reasons offered function better as reasons for not relocating to Helios. Nor has the author provided compelling reasons for companies seeking new business opportunities to choose Helios.
例文2
In this argument corporations are urged to consider the city of Helios when seeking a new location or new business opportunities. To support this recommendation, the author points out that Helios is the industrial center of the region, providing most of the region’s manufacturing jobs and enjoying a lower-than-average unemployment rate. Moreover, it is argued, efforts are currently underway to expand the economic base of the city by attracting companies that focus on research and development of innovative technologies. This argument is problematic for two reasons.
To begin with, it is questionable whether the available labor pool in Helios could support all types of corporations. Given that Helios has attracted mainly industrial and manufacturing companies in the past, it is unlikely that the local pool of prospective employees would be suitable for corporations of other types. For example, the needs of research and development companies would not be met by a labor force trained in manufacturing skills. For this reason, it’s unlikely that Helios will be successful in its attempt to attract companies that focus or research and development of innovative technologies.
Another problem with the available work force is its size. Due to the lower than average unemployment rate in Helios, corporations that require large numbers of workers would not find Helios attractive. The fact that few persons are out of work suggests that new corporations will have to either attract new workers to Helios or pay the existing workers higher wages in order to lure them away from their current jobs. Neither of these alternatives seems enticing to companies seeking to relocate.
In conclusion, the author has not succeeded in providing compelling reasons for selecting Helios as the site for a company wishing to relocate. In fact, the reasons offered function better as reasons for not relocating to Helios. Nor has the author provided compelling reasons for companies seeking new business opportunities to choose Helios.
       18.(1次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: louiemok) 去年新开5条航线，发现亏损了20%，虽然油价涨了，但是觉得就是航线的不对。要减去5条新航线。
考古：
V1. 某航空公司发现，上个季profits减少了20%。写报告的人认为是燃油涨价造成的。但是他又提到，别的航空公司也面临燃油贵的问题，但仍然有公司是improve profits.所以他最后的结论就是，因为我们公司增加了新的flight, 所以燃油cost更多。为了improve profit，公司应该eliminate the new flights we added the ealier year.
V2. 某个航空公司去年利润下降，他们就认为原因肯定是因为油价上涨和新开了航线中的至少一个，而去年所有的公司都经历了油价上涨，但仍然有公司盈利，所以油价肯定不是利润减少的原因。因此，公司把新开的航线关闭了就可以提高利润。
V3. 好像是机经里的，什么有一个Provincia Airlines，profits下降了，CEO觉得是油价上涨或者是new flights added导致的。他又发现其他airlines虽然也面临油价上涨问题，但是仍然有航线的利润是上升的，因此他得出结论应当是new flights added导致了利润下降，认为应该减少flights added.
V4. Airline去年的赢利下降了10%。 去年油价上涨了，同时此公司在去年新开了五个航班(flights)。 但是虽然去年油价上涨，其他一些航空公司的赢利却没有下降，因此油价并不是公司盈利下降的原因。由此可知问题出在五个新增航班上。因此公司应当取消(eliminate)这些航班以增加利润。
参考思路：
1.False analogy : 把其他公司与自己类比，错误横向类比
2.Either or choice:不是油价问题就是新航班问题
3.All things are equal:今年与去年错误纵向类比
       19.(1次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: easy927) 讲一个连锁fitness gym的business manager提出在会所里开organic food grocery的建议。说近期的一个survey表明人们对健康饮食越来越重视，而one way to eat healthier is oganic food，因为oganic food不含添加剂之类的。这个manager说从这个survey可以看出this city is ready to support a organic food grocery(目前还没有)。为了抓住市场先机并promote healthy lifestyle, 他建议fitness gym在下属的3家门店都增设organic grocery section，这样可以使将近1年停滞的profit有所提升。
考古：
V1. 是说一个fitness公司的manager通过一个survey发现 现在人们越来越关注healthy life, 通过吃现在很受欢迎。(这里我理解的是大家更喜欢healthy food了)organic food可以达到很健康的水平，所以要在他的3家fitness gym里面都要加一个organic grocery section。这样可以收到很多顾客的青睐。获得更多profit。(同样没有原文)
V2 People are interested in eating healthier, one way is to eat organic food which is grown without chemical and pesticide. Government is supportive for organic food. One grocery manager is recommending expanding their 3 out of 4 existing store to sell organic food.
V3 就是最近的一个survey得出结论，现在的人更喜欢吃的营养，而吃的营养的一种方法就是吃有机食品。所以作者就建议说在那个市里开有机食品店，在这种有机食品还没有普遍的情况下打开市场。而且这个店要开在体育馆里，还是三个体育馆每个都设立这样一个grocery food store(类似)这样可以增加体育馆的收入。
V4. 一个在中等大小的城市开a chain of gyms的公司经理认为：A survey of the customers 显示了a high level of interest on eating healthier, 有一种eating healthier 的方式是吃organic food，这种食品没有农药和?(我忘了…)。而且这个地方还没有卖organic food的。然后好像是说这个城市有这个方面的市场，而且还没有其他公司进来(又或者是防止其他外地公司进来)，这个公司就打算在include an organic section at each location， 这样他们一定能够提高盈利
参考思路：
1. 大家到gym里就打打球啊最多买买水，买这种东西都在supermarket里买的，介样profit就木有什么了
2. 就是本地的环境可能比其他地方的差，就算raised么农药大家也不要你的，因为品质比别的地方差。本地居民不想你垄断啊，就不买你的，就要等national chain进来啊，你们价格竞争我买便宜的。
3、gratuitous assumption：假设customers 对eating healthier的兴趣越来越大，就一定会想要消费organic food。事实上人们可以有多种eating healthier的选择，比如放弃drink alcohol或者多吃绿色植物
4、该城市里面目前没有一家organic food store不带表在该地区建立store会有商机，也许正是由于人们对这种food不感兴趣，所以曾经建立起来的相关商店无法survive long,最后都关门大吉了
5、cost and revenue：没有考虑到在三家gym fitness里面开organic food section 的成本可能超过未来的收益，没有一个thorough analysis ，因此无法得到一定会profitable.
20.(1次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: fish0111) 有一个叫George的人在sallon town，一个有很多大学，有上千个学生的地方开了第一家饭店，店内的spicy sandwiches 销量很好。因此，G打算在附近的towns and cities 开三家新店，并派三个从一开始就在他手下工作的训练过的员工去担任新店店长，并打算让利润翻三番 tripple the profits。
考古：
V1. The argument was about a paragraph from a restaurant business newsletter about small franchise restaurants.
A small restaurant owner, George, opened a pita restaurant in a college town Sallon. His restaurant has been quite successful for the last 2 years. So he decided to open another 3 restaurants in nearby cities and towns. He also plans to promote his 3 employees who have been trained under him to be the managers of the new restaurants. He expects his profits will trip after all restaurants are opened.
V2. 有个名叫George的人两年前开了一个餐馆在Sallon town，这个Sallon TOWN正好有一个人数thousands of students,生意非常好，所以George根据这个觉得有必要在临近的城镇再开三家，以创造更多profit,他就叫在他手下训练的三个跟他的employees去当三家分店经理，GEORGE认为会如在Sallon的餐馆一样，会生意一样好
V3. GEORGE 这两年在某个城镇开了个餐厅，附近有一所大学，thousands of students。最近，他发现他店里面的辣椒味三文治卖的很好，给他带来了巨大的收益。因此，G决定在周围地区多开3间餐厅，并且让3名从原来这家餐厅 开业起就跟着他的员工作为这些餐厅的manager. G相信他的利润很快就会增加3倍。
参考思路：
1. 其他地方的顾客可能没有第一家餐馆的地方多，没那么多students，所以不一定生意好。错误类比吧。
2. 雇员当分店经理了可能管理水平不行啦之类的
3. False causal relationship :多开餐馆跟利润上升之间无必然关系
4.all things are equal：在这卖的好其他地方不一定
5.either-or choice
21.(2次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: 鲁邦四世) 一个健身中心(Center)，去年夏天开房了一个新的游泳池(swimming pool)之后，会员量大增。所以为了提升人流量，进而促进收入(revenue)增加，这个中心准备增加新的许多设施。(注：revenue主要是基于会员费的)。由于这些新设施是其他健身中心不具备的，这可以有助于本中心建立竞争优势。
原题：
The following appeared as part of a business plan created by the management of the Take Heart Fitness Center.
“After opening the new swimming pool early last summer, Take Heart saw a 12 percent increase in the use of the center by members. Therefore, in order to increase the number of our members and thus our revenues, which depend on membership fees, we should continue to add new recreational facilities in subsequent years: for example, a multipurpose game room, a tennis court, and a miniature golf course. Being the only center in the area offering this range of activities would give us a competitive advantage in the health and recreation market.”
Take Heart健身中心的管理者起草的商业计划：
去年夏天开了新的游泳池以后，TH发现会员对中心的使用率增加了12%。因此，为了增加我们的会员数量来增加收入，我们应该在以后几年中继续增加新的娱乐设施：比如，一个多功能游戏室，一个网球场，一个迷你高尔夫球场。作为本地唯一一家提供各种活动的健身中心，我们将在健身和娱乐市场建立竞争优势。
参考思路：
1.首先，认为会员使用游泳池的数量增加就能增加会员人数是没有根据的。错误的建立了这两者的关系。也许去年夏天特别的热，所以大家天天都来游泳，或者新游泳池设施齐全服务好，所以会员们都放弃了去别的地方游泳的选择。但是不能就直接说明这和会员人数会增加有什么因果关系。
2.全时对等。认为去年发生的事情同样也会发生在将来，没有根据。不能证明说他们会有同样的结果。
3.认为增加游乐场所就能增加会员和利润没有根据。顾客除了要求更多新颖的游乐设施，对服务的要求和会员fee也很重要，其他游乐场所降低会员费，提供coupon，bonus，price advantage之类的同样也有竞争力;此外还忽略了增加这么多的游乐设施要投入的成本很大，也许最后收入还不及投入的成本多，反而使利润下降。
参考范文：
Because Take Heart Fitness Center experienced a 12 percent increase in member usage as a result of opening a new swimming pool last summer, the author recommends the addition of new recreational facilities in subsequent years as a means of increasing membership in Take Heart. The author's recommendation is problematic for several reasons.
First, and foremost, the author assumes that an increase in member usage portends an increase in membership. This assumption may hold true in some cases. However, it is unlikely to hold true in the case at hand, because it is reasonable to expect that members would visit the fitness center to inspect and try out the new swimming pool. This would account for the increase in usage. However, since the author provides no evidence that this new rate of usage was sustained, the abrupt increase in usage provides little evidence that the addition of facilities such as the pool will attract new members.
Second, the author assumes that the addition of the swimming pool was responsible for the increase in member usage. However, the only evidence for this claim is insufficient to establish the causal claim in question. While temporal precedence is one of the conditions required to establish a causal relationship between two events, by itself it is not a sufficient condition. Consequently, it is possible that the addition of the pool was unrelated to the increase in usage in the manner required by the author's argument.
Finally, the author has provided no evidence to support the contention that Take Heart will be the only center in the area to offer a wide range of activities to its members and thus have a competitive advantage in the fitness market.
In conclusion, the author's belief that adding additional recreational facilities will increase Take Heart's membership is ill-founded. To strengthen the argument the author would have to provide evidence that member usage is reliable indicator of new membership. Additionally, it would be necessary to show that the cause of the increase in usage was the opening of the new pool.
22.(1次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: BBBinko ) Two years ago Nova High School began to use interactive computer instruction in three academic subjects. The school dropout rate declined immediately, and last year's graduates have reported some impressive achievements in college. In future budgets the school board should use a greater portion of the available funds to buy more computers, and all schools in the district should adopt interactive computer instruction throughout the curriculum.
原题：
The following appeared as part of a newspaper editorial.
“Two years ago Nova High School began to use interactive computer instruction in three academic subjects. The school dropout rate declined immediately, and last year's graduates have reported some impressive achievements in college. In future budgets the school board should use a greater portion of the available funds to buy more computers, and all schools in the district should adopt interactive computer instruction throughout the curriculum.”
两年前Nova高中开始在3个科学科目中使用互动计算机指导。学校的退学率立刻下降，而且去年的毕业生在大学取得了一些很不错的成绩。在未来的预算中，校董事会应该在能得到的资金中拨出更大的一块用来购买更多的计算机。而且这一区的所有学校都应该在课程中采用互动计算机指导。
参考思路：
1，很可能是学校出台的policy要求老师上课认真，学生更加勤奋导致的。同时发生不能说明因果。stricter discipline applied last year.还有其他的比如加入新课引起学生的兴趣等等。counseling and training programs
2，其他的学校情况跟这个不一定相同。比如很可能是艺术类等文科院校，而这个是科学类的，所以不同。
3，很可能短暂的interest之后学生会失去兴趣。或者别的什么情况发生了变化。
4. False causal relationship :退学率和毕业生成绩与计算机指导无因果关系
5. All things are equal：remain unchanged，两年前结果不能用于未来
6. False analogy：N高中与这一区所有学校无可比性
7. Insufficient sample:Nova这个一个学校不具有代表性
参考范文：
Sample essay 1:
The argument that the school board should buy more computers and adopt interactive computer instruction is not entirely logically convincing, since it ignores certain crucial assumptions.
First, the argument assumes that the decline of school dropout and the achievements of last year's graduates' results from the adoption of interactive computer instruction. However, there are several reasons why this might not be true. For example, achievements could have been made in other subjects than the ones with interactive computer instruction. Or last years' graduates might not have been given the interactive computer instruction. Or the decline of the rate of dropout could be attributed to stricter discipline applied last year.
Second, even supposing the Nova High School's decline of the dropout and last year's graduates' achievements benefit directly from the usage of interactive computer instruction, the success of the instruction in one school may not ensure the success in other schools. If it does not suit other schools, the instruction will not work.
Finally, even if the decline of the rate of dropout and the achievements of the last year's graduates' are the direct results of the interactive computer instruction, we still do not know whether the school can afford to apply the instruction on all the subjects or to all the students. If the school does not have sufficient fund and has to cut budgets on other projects such as the library, the quality of the school's education will also compromise.
Thus, the argument is not completely sound. The evidence in support of the conclusion that the dropout rate declined and last year's graduates made impressive achievements does little to prove the conclusion that other schools should use a greater portion of their funds to apply the instruction since it does not address the assumptions I have already raised. Ultimately, the argument might have been strengthened by making it clear that the decline of the dropout rate and the achievements of the graduates are the direct results of interactive computer instruction, that the instruction is also applicable to other schools in the district, and that the instruction is affordable to all the schools in the district.
Sample essay 2:
The editorial recommends that the school board of Nova High spend a greater portion of available funds on the purchase of additional computers and adopt interactive computer instruction throughout the curriculum. Two reasons are offered in support of this recommendation. First, the introduction of interactive computer instruction in three academic subjects was immediately followed by a decline in the school dropout rate. Second, last year's graduates experienced impressive achievements in college. This argument is unconvincing for two reasons.
To begin with, this argument is a classic instance of “after this, therefore because of this” reasoning. The mere fact that the introduction of interactive computer instruction preceded the impressive performance of recent graduates and the decline in the dropout rate is insufficient to conclude that it was the cause of these events. Many other factors could bring about these same results. For example, the school may have implemented counseling and training programs that better meet the needs of students who might otherwise leave school to take jobs. In addition, the school may have introduced programs to better prepare students for college.
Secondly, the author assumes that the impressive achievements of last year's graduates bear some relation to the introduction of interactive computer instruction at Nova High. However, no evidence is offered to support this assumption. Lacking evidence that links the achievements of the recent graduates to the interactive instruction, it is presumptuous to suggest that the computer instruction was in some way responsible for the students' impressive performance.
In conclusion, the recommendation that Nova High spend a greater portion of available funds on the purchase of additional computers and adopt interactive computer instruction throughout the curriculum is ill-founded. To strengthen this recommendation the author would have to demonstrate that the decline in the dropout rate and the impressive performance of recent graduates came about as a result of the use of computer-interactive instruction. All that has been shown so far is a correlation between these events.
       23.(1次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: tyw525) 某个manager说 他们在六月时将automobile的models adertised on the nespaper in prominent position.所以很多customers都看到然后购买，以至于利润成了the highest point。应该是来年二月时将广告刊登在不太显眼的位置。结果利润就lower了。所以认为要想获得利润应该就要刊登在prominent position.
考古：
V1. 将一个公司六月份专门做luxury line 的广告，销量上升，二月做inexpensive的广告，销量下降。结论是应该做luxury line 的广告。
V2. 题目是关于汽车公司的。汽车公司在六月分的时候，做了luxury automobile 的广告，结果luxury 和inexpensive 的汽车都卖的很好。二月份的时候focus on inexpensive car的广告结果两种车都卖的不好。所以得出结论要focus on luxury car 的广告
V3. 汽车公司在六月分的时候，做了luxury automobile 的广告，结果luxury 和inexpensive 的汽车都卖的很好。二月份的时候focus on inexpensive car的广告结果两种车都卖的不好。所以得出结论要focus on luxury car 的广告
参考思路：
1. 六月和二月比较不对，不一定是广告影响的销量
2. 过去时这样不代表将来也是这样
3. 销量增多带来的利润不一定能补偿做luxury line广告比inexpensive广告花费多的部分
4. 六月份汽车大卖，可能是其他原因造成的。
24.(2次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: 安然向人) 没看JJ 裸奔的，题目是中年人群在某STORE购物消费占30+%，年轻人占24%左右。因为中年人口会超级增长，所以商店计划把很多还是一部分的针对年轻人的商品换为针对中年人的。
原题：(感谢catherine0604找到题库原题)
The following appeared in the opinion column of a financial magazine:
“On average, middle-aged consumers devote 39 percent of their retail expenditure to department store products and services, while for younger consumers the average is only 25 percent. Since the number of middle-aged people will increase dramatically within the next decade, department stores can expect retail sales to increase significantly during that period. Furthermore, to take advantage of the trend, these stores should begin to replace some of those products intended to attract the younger consumer with products intended to attract the middle-aged consumer.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
参考思路：
1. Either or choice。中年消费者和年轻消费者。
2.条件不充分。必须提供别的数据证明中年消费者的总消费量和青年消费者一样。
3.不随时变。中年消费者和青年消费者在10年后依旧会保持现在的消费习惯。
       25.(1次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: 为G拼了) 一店铺在增加了一项服务后(具体啥忘记了)，今年的利润增加了20%，于是就得出结论顾客主要看中the convenience afforded by the one-stop shop,于是打算增设clothing department，并且还打算继续增设部门和服务以此获得更高的利润
原题：
The following is part of a business plan created by the management of the Megamart grocery store.
“Our total sales have increased this year by 20 percent since we added a pharmacy section to our grocery store. Clearly, the customer’s main concern is the convenience afforded by one-stop shopping. The surest way to increase our profits over the next couple of years, therefore, is to add a clothing department along with an automotive supplies and repair shop. We should also plan to continue adding new departments and services, such as a restaurant and a garden shop, in subsequent years. Being the only store in the area that offers such a range of services will give us a competitive advantage over other local stores.”
Megamart杂货店的管理层的商务计划：
由于我们在杂货店内加了药剂销售部分，今年我们的总体销售额增加了20%。显然，顾客主要关注的是一次性购物的便利性。在今后两年内提高我们的利润的最佳方法是增加一个成衣部门和一个汽车配件和维修商店。我们同时也应该在最后的几年中继续增加新的部门和服务，比如餐馆，园艺商店。成为本地唯一的提供如此广泛服务的商店将给我们带来超越其他商店的竞争优势。
参考思路：
1. 无因果联系：文章并没有说药剂销售部分与总销售额的因果关系
2. False analogy：药剂销售与汽车配件、维修店类比
3. All things are equal : 今年的销售增加纵向错误类比今后两年销量会增加
4. Gratuitous assumption：无端假设销售额增加是因为顾客关注一次性购物便利
参考范文：
The management of the Megamart grocery store concludes that adding new departments and services is the surest way to increase profits over the next couple of years. They are led to this conclusion because of a 20 percent increase in total sates, realized after the addition of a pharmacy section to the grocery store. On the basis of this experience, they concluded that the convenience of one-stop shopping was the main concern of their customers. The management’s argument is faulty in several respects.
In the first place, the management assumes that the increase in total sales was due to the addition of the pharmacy section. However, the only evidence offered to support this conclusion is the fact that the addition of the pharmacy preceded the increase in sales. But the mere fact that the pharmacy section was added before the increase occurred is insufficient grounds to conclude that it was responsible for the increase. Many other factors could bring about this same result. Lacking a detailed analysis of the source of the sales increase, it would be sheer folly to attribute the increase to the addition of the pharmacy section.
In the second place, even if it were the case that the increase in total sales was due to the addition of the pharmacy section, this fact alone is insufficient to support the claim that adding additional departments will increase sales even further. It is quite possible that the addition of the pharmacy section increased sales simply because there was no other pharmacy in the vicinity. The additional proposed departments and services, on the other hand, might be well represented in the area and their addition might have no impact whatsoever on the profits of the store. In other words, there may be relevant differences between the pharmacy section and the additional proposed sections that preclude them from having a similar effect on the sales of the store.
In conclusion, the management’s argument is not well-reasoned. To strengthen the conclusion, the management must provide additional evidence linking the addition of the pharmacy section to the increase in total sales. It must also show that there are no exceptional reasons for the sales increase due to the pharmacy section that would not apply to the other proposed additions.
26.(3次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: 261727223) An e-mail from the owner of Food For XXXXXX,(同位语介绍公司),to the manager.
先说一个specialized in cooking的bookstore的profits 很steady since they…………(他们的一个措施，感觉不是重心)。但是，owner说major bookstore & internet bookstore有个strategy很给力，就是一个定价策略：给best-seller打折，吸引更多顾客，提高total sales，最后提高profits。然后owner开始YY说，如果我们能学习这个策略我们能卖更多的书，能赚更多的profits。
考古：
V1. 说的是一个当地的书店，提供一些什么COOKING之类的服务，取得了成功。 过去几年来利润都一直稳定着。所以这个书店提出来要学习INTERNET BOOKSTORE 或者 chain bookstores 那样零利润吸引顾客。这个LOCAL 书店应该要discount，同时需要取消掉原来的cooking来弥补这个discount造成的损失
V2. jj上有，是那个本地书店学习大书店和网络书店策略的那个
V3. 是说一个什么卖书的以前卖食谱，后来又搞了个什么wine and cheese bar，说有稳定的profit，然后就想引进畅销书和网上售书什么什么的，后面没很读懂，意思是说可以赚更多钱吧;
V4. 说的是一个专卖cookbook的书店近几年的profit都很稳定，所以想continue grow.于是，想借助Internet bookseller的strategy去发展。要deeply discount best-sell books，还要减少什么的discount(忘了，确切的说是我不认识那个词……汗)还要取消免费的什么东西。
V5. 一个manager 有个cooking book公司在食谱书店通过找当地名厨在现场做demonstration 和在附近的公司休息室也不食堂的发放免费cheese什么的提高了profit。所以他们认为雇佣那些特有经验的优秀销售在卖其他书的书店和网络营销也将会提高收益。
参考思路：
1. 别人的成功方法不一定适用于自己
2. 取消cooking不一定能弥补得了discount的损失
3. 还有别的方法吸引顾客
27.(2次)
原始寂静：
V1(BY: 蔚蓝の羽) 说一项research显示，多运动的人比少运动的人less hospitalized。然后有一个S城，有个公司想通过提供当地很好的gym, 来减少municipal employees health insurance的cost， 同时通过减少cost来keep当地的budget balance。
原题：
The following appeared in a memo to the Saluda town council from the town's business manager.
"Research indicates that those who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often as those who don't exercise. By providing a well-equipped gym for Saluda's municipal employees, we should be able to reduce the cost of our group health insurance coverage by approximately 50 percent and thereby achieve a balanced town budget."
研究发现运动的人比不运动的人去医院的机会少一半，因此一个manger决定为他们的员工发造一个体育馆，这样能减少医疗保险的coverage从而减少花费。
参考思路：
1. There is no causal relationship between the development of the employees' health and the provision of a well-equipped gym.
2. Therefore, the reduction of the cost of group health insurance coverage expected by the author is not guaranteed.
3. Even if the provision of the gym can cause a reduction of the cost, no one can rely on it to achieve a balanced town budget since the health incidents occur very randomly.
4. False causal relationship
5. All things are equal
6.Insufficient sample
参考范文：
In this memo Saluda's business manager recommends that the town provide a gym for its employees as a means of balancing the town's budget. The manager reasons that since studies show that people who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often than those who don't exercise, Saluda could save approximately 50% on the cost of its group health insurance coverage by providing its employees with a well-equipped gym. The savings on insurance would balance the town's budget. The manager's argument is unconvincing because it rests on several unsupported and dubious assumptions.
First, the manager assumes that Saluda's employees will exercise regularly if a well-equipped facility is provided for them. This assumption is questionable since the mere fact that a gym is made available for employee use is no guarantee that they will avail themselves of it at all, let alone on a regular basis.
Second, the manager assumes that Saluda's employees do not exercise regularly. Once again, the manager offers no support for this crucial assumption. Obviously, if all of Sauda's employees already engage in daily exercise, the hospitalization rate will be unaffected by equipping an exercise facility and no savings will be realized on the group health insurance.
Third, the manager assumes that there is a direct relation between the hospitalization rate for employees and the cost of their group health insurance such that a reduction in the hospitalization rate will result in a corresponding reduction in the cost of insurance. While this may turn out to be true, the manager has failed to offer any evidence for this claim.
Finally, the manager assumes that the cost of building a well-equipped exercise facility will not negate the savings realized on the group health insurance. Until evidence has been provided to show that this is not the case, the manager's plan is unacceptable.
In conclusion, the business manager's proposal to provide an exercise facility as a means of balancing Saluda's budget is not convincing. To strengthen the argument, evidence would have to be provided for each of the assumptions listed in the previous analysis.