14.
原始寂静：
V1(BY: yangzidana ) 题目是一篇DEPARTMENT STORE经理的文章。说因为LOCAL CLOTHING STORE的数据显示其利润在8.1-10.31期间平均呈下降状态，而相反，售卖product for home的店的报告则是利润在同一时期平均上升。因此说顾客们更愿意消费在家庭用品而非衣服上。所以为了利用好这一趋势，建议扩大home furnishing home product的departments的规模并且缩小clothing部门的规模。
原题:
The following appeared as part of a recommendation from the business manager of a department store:
“Local clothing stores reported that their profits decreased, on average, for the three-month period between August 1 and October 31. Stores that sell products for the home reported that, on average, their profits increased during this same period. Clearly, consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing. To take advantage of this trend, we should reduce the size of our clothing departments and enlarge our home furnishings and household products departments.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
专卖店的商务经理的备忘录：
本地服装店报告说从8月1号到10月31号的3个月里他们的平均利润下降。销售家庭用品的商店却报告同期的平均利润上升。很明显，顾客正选择为他们的家里购买用品而不是买衣物。为了利用这个趋势，我们应该缩减我们的服装部规模而扩大家庭装饰和家务用品部
参考思路：
1. False causal relationship:不能有家庭用品销售量上升就说顾客在选择.....
2. Either or choice:服装销售下降，家用销售增加就说....，太绝对，也有可能其他的都增加，就衣服销售减少了
3. All thing are equal：过去三个月的销量不能代表未来
4. Gratuitous assumption：因为这三个月的销售量就假设这个趋势，不对。假设缩减我们的服装部规模而扩大家庭装饰和家务用品部可以形成优势也不对。
参考范文：
Based upon sales reports over a three-month period that indicate an increase in profits for stores that sell products for the home and a decrease in profits for clothing stores, the business manager of a department store concludes that consumers are choosing to purchase home furnishings rather than clothing. On the basis of this conclusion, the manager recommends a reduction in the size of the clothing department and an increase in the size of the home-furnishings department. This recommendation is problematic in two critical respects.
In the first place, the author’s conclusion that consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing is based upon too small a sample. Data gathered from a three-month period is insufficient to establish the conclusion drawn from it. It is quite possible that the three-month period chosen is idiosyncratic and not representative of entire year’s sales. If so, reducing the size of the clothing departments and enlarging the home-furnishings departments may be a costly mistake.
In the second place, the data collected during the three month period may be biased. The fact that the data reflects sales in local stores is cause for concern. It is possible that the sales trend in a particular location is not representative of sales in other regions. For example, sales of clothing in Florida during the winter months are likely to be quite different from sales of clothing in Alaska during the same period.
In conclusion, this argument is not persuasive as it stands. A more convincing argument must provide additional sales data, collected at different periods of the year and at different locations, that substantiates the trend in question.
15.
原始寂静：
V1(BY: 妖狐藏马A): 作文是一个国家举办了足球赛，结果旅游人数上升，于是建议再举办运动会，这样会对国家的经济有好处。
考古：
V1: 关于一场国际soccer competition带来B国旅游者人数增长的短文
V2. The country of Bonaria held a major soccer event five years ago. Therefore, if the country continues to hold major sport events, tourism will increase rapidly in the country and thus bring benefits to the country's economy.
V3. 一个B城市: 5年前hold a soccer competition. 发现相比在这个competition 3年前，在这个competition举办后的3年的number of tourists increased 25%。所有呢，这个B城市打算再举办一次类似的sport event 来吸引游客。这个城市B相信，这个sport event会增加游客人数，同时benefit the country economy.
V4. 一个岛国B 5年前开了一个足球比赛，最近三年内游客人数涨了25%。所以说为了促进更多的游客来，我们B应该举行更多的比赛。才能带了更多的游客数量和利润。
V5.大概是B地旅游发展局给出数据，几年前这里举办了大型soccer比赛，吸引了大量游客到访，同时刺激了当地经济发展。但后来经济又回落了，所以当局想继续举办大型的运动赛事来重新刺激经济发展
参考思路：
1. 错误的由时间先后推出因果关系
2. 过去的成功不能保证将来，存在他因
3.因果关系：不能因为一场球赛吸引了很多观众就要举办更多的比赛。首先举办比赛需要场地。足球比赛对场地的要求较低，但如果是举办体操，游泳等比赛，会花费大量的建厂成本，也许会超过收入。
4.论据以偏概全：不能因为一场球赛就说明所有的国际比赛都很吸引观众。也许是因为这场比赛的重要性和特殊性导致了其有很高的观众参与度，就像Olympic game一样。但是其他的国际比赛也许不能有这样的效果。
5.Either or 的选择：提高经济收入并不仅仅有通过举办比赛这样一种方式，还可以发展当地的旅游特色，挖掘作为一个island的特点，从而增加收入
16.
原始寂静：
V1(BY: 救救痘包): 类似一个投资公司的专家给客户的建议吧~说有一个做衣服的公司~它们去年五年销量持续增长~今年还打算开125家专卖店~公司的什么管理程序也很好~专家就建议它的客户买这个公司的股票~因为这个公司的CEO是之前一个特别有名的ROCK STAR说他的FAME会给公司带来正面作用~
考古：
V1一个股票分析师的文章，说Crower's Head Clothes company主营年轻人的衣物等时尚用品，过去5年在outlet里面卖的非常好。现在公司要在全国各地的shopping mall里开125家自己的专卖店。分析师强烈建议顾客买入这个公司的股票。另外这个公司的管理层非常好，关键是他的CEO是一个从前很有名的rock star，他的专辑以前还上过排行榜(或者非常畅销之类的意思)。这个CEO能让这个公司更能被大家认可并且ensure its success as a young growth company.
V2一个新的服装企业 发展五年要开自己的retail store ，作者建议clients 购进这个企业的衣服，因为有很强的竞争力，而且CEO是原来很有名气的rock star (我总觉得是艾薇儿的那个clothes line)
V3.某集团的某产品在一些连里面销售不错。所以他们计划打算自己卖(在超市里面)。有一个投资经理忽悠客户叫他们赶紧买这家公司的股票。因为上面的原因。还有一个更搞笑的，该公司CEO是“前”摇滚明星。具有recognition知名度，能号召Young什么的购买力。
V4.讲的是一个young rising company 扩张了自己的业务，并且为了company的成功给出了两种预测——第一个是由于员工的极力推荐，可以使这个这个公司的发展获得成功。第二个是由于该company 的CEO是一个rock star，通过该CEO的star power也可以促使这个young rising company 获得成功
V5 说有间clothing is the new trend for youth apparel，然后financial analyst 建议investment firm to purchase this company based on the following。因为：1.the company has been profitable in past 5 years 2.management has been very aggressive in expansion. They plan to open 125 stores this year 3. CEO is a former rock star and the album has been the top sales. The star power will be Influential
参考思路：
1. 过去5年盈利不保证将来也会盈利，新的销售渠道的建立(改变销售渠道)可能会对销量产生负面影响
2. 证据不充分：有实力管理激进不能推断出股东能获利
3. 错误因果。前摇滚明星有知名度有粉丝，但管理好公司还需要专业的CEO
4. 前摇滚明星不能保证在未来的一代青年人中一直保持高知名度
5. 衣服卖得多了很可能是全国经济形势好了不一定跟他们公司产品质量好有关系。
6. 在别人的outline卖得好他们自己可能不会管理卖的不一定好。
7. 一个摇滚明星，还是过气的摇滚明星，要管理不一定会管理要人气没人气，这种人当CEO靠谱 17.
原始寂静：
V1(BY: liwji ) 公司遇到RANK 问题他们做了个调查发现员工认为有RANK 然后他们搞了一个communication session说是讨论管理什么的然后员工就可以自愿参加然后就可以提高啦~什么的~~这个。。很幼稚的考题很好找攻击点
原题:
The following appeared in a memorandum from the director of human resources to the executive officers of Company X:
“Last year, we surveyed our employees on improvements needed at Company X by having them rank, in order of importance, the issues presented in a list of possible improvements. Improved communications between employees and management was consistently ranked as the issue of highest importance by the employees who responded to the survey. As you know, we have since instituted regular communications sessions conducted by high-level management, which the employees can attend on a voluntary basis. Therefore, it is likely that most employees at Company X now feel that the improvement most needed at the company has been made.”
人力资源经理给X公司的经营主管的备忘录：
去年，我们向员工调查他们认为X公司应该进行的改进，让他们把改进按重要性排列。结果列印为一张可能的改进的表格。根据调查中员工的反应，“加强员工和管理层的沟通”最具重要性，稳居调查表之首。如你所知，那以后我们建立了由高层管理人员组织，雇员可以自愿参加的常规交流会。因此，看来X的多数员工认为最应该进行的改进已经完成了。
参考思路：
1.The result of a last year's survey does not necessarily represent the improvement most needed of this year.
2.How was the survey held has not been illustrated by the author, thus making the conclusion groundless.
3.Whether the implement of the mentioned resolution is right or wrong is still unkonwn, it is still too early to say the improvement has been made.
4.调查的可信性：是否anonymous，如果要named，很可能并不是他们最想要的改进。
5.改进方法是否充分?是否交流会有很好交流，并且采纳accept意见
参考范文：
The Director of Human Resources concludes that most employees at Company X feel that the improvement most needed at the company has been satisfactorily addressed. Two reasons are offered in support of this conclusion. First, a survey of employees showed that the issue respondents were most concerned about was employee-management communication. Second, the company has since instituted regular voluntary sessions for employees and management designed to improve communication. The director’s argument is questionable for two reasons.
To begin with, the validity of the survey is doubtful. Lacking information about the number of employees surveyed and the number of respondents, it is impossible to assess the validity of the results. For example, if 200 employees were surveyed but only two responded, the conclusion that most of the employees ranked employee-management communication as the most pressing issue would be highly suspect. Because the argument offers no evidence that would rule out interpretations such as this, the survey results are insufficient to support the author’s conclusion.
Furthermore, even if the survey accurately ranks certain issues according to level of employee concern, the highest-ranked issue in the survey might not be the issue about which employees are most concerned. Why? The improvement most needed from the point of view of the employees might not have appeared as one of the choices on the survey. For example, if the list of improvements presented on the survey was created by management rather than by the employees, then the issues of greatest concern to the employees might not be included on the list. Lacking information about how the survey was prepared, it is impossible to assess its reliability. Consequently, any conclusion based on it is highly questionable.
In conclusion, the director’s conclusion is not well-founded. To strengthen the argument, additional information regarding the way in which the employee survey was prepared and conducted is required.